Wagering With A Target Profit – When To Stop?
There are three main ways of doing higher risk deposit match offers:
- Standard - Where you keep playing until you either complete the wagering or you bust out.
- Standard (Target Profit) - Where you stop if you reach a target profit whilst playing with cash funds. Cash funds still count towards wagering. You'll need to tick the target profit box if you want to set a target profit.
- Second Chance Bonus - Where you stop if you reach a target profit whilst playing with cash funds. Only bonus funds count towards wagering.
When only bonus funds count towards wagering we must calculate it with the Second Chance Bonus style. When cash counts towards the wagering requirement you can choose either Standard or Standard (with a target profit), whichever suits your preferences based on the simulated results.
Sometimes when you are doing an offer (particularly when you've got a target profit) you will be posed with the question of whether to continue wagering to release bonus funds, or to withdraw and take your cash profit. This guide will give you an insight in to how to make the correct decision.
USING THE SIMULATOR TO ANALYSE THE EV
Once we have reached a target profit we want to know whether it really is correct to withdraw your cash funds and forfeit the bonus. To do this we can use the simulator to analyse the EV of finishing the offer from your current position.
Here is the information you will be inputting into the simulator to achieve this.
- Bonus Type - Whichever mode your offer was initially set to.
- Deposit - Your cash balance amount.
- Bonus - Your bonus balance amount.
- Wagering - The amount of wagering you have left to complete.
- The rest of the information will remain as it was for your offer (but untick the target profit box if you had it ticked initially).
If the result is +EV then it is profitable to carry on. If it is -EV then it is more profitable to stop wagering and withdraw your cash balance.
EXAMPLE
For the purpose of this guide we're doing an offer which is 'Deposit £100 Get £100 Bonus' with 30x deposit & bonus wagering. We have ran the simulation on this offer with 'Standard (Target Profit)' type and a target profit of £100.
In this first example I have wagered £5,000 of the £6,000 total wagering requirements and hit a big win taking my cash balance to £220. I have reached more than my target profit amount so let's see how this affects the value of the offer from this point.
As you can see, even though your cash balance is more than your profit target, the wagering is still worth completing. From this point the offer is clearly +EV (profitable) due to the relatively low amount of wagering needed to convert your bonus funds into cash. The correct decision in this situation is to keep playing until you have fully completed the wagering requirements.
WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU HIT YOUR TARGET PROFIT EARLY?
This time I'm only £1,000 into the £6,000 total wagering and have reached a cash balance of £220. I have reached my target profit amount so let's see how this affects the value of the offer from this point.
As you can see if you decided to keep playing, from this point the offer would be clearly -EV (not profitable and a waste of time). This is due to the relatively high amount of wagering needed to convert your bonus funds into cash. The correct decision in this situation is to stop playing, take your profit, and withdraw your cash.
SUMMARY
In most situations if you find yourself with a decent profit early into your wagering you will find it's better to stop playing and withdraw your cash balance. However, if you hit a big win late into wagering it's usually more profitable to keep playing until the bonus is completed.
Using the simulator based on your wagering progress and current profit should help make your decision on whether you want to keep playing or not. Sometimes the simulator may say it's slightly +EV to keep wagering, but if you are happy with your profit then feel free to withdraw it.